Research: Over 12 million to Shop Australia’s Biggest Black Friday, with a Hangover to Follow
60% of Aussies have been holding off on purchases, new Nature: Next research finds
More Australians than ever are planning to shop Black Friday this year, with 12.55 million intending to take part, according to Nature: Next's Black Friday 2026 study. That's more than one million more than last year, and the largest jump in four years of tracking.
The study points to pent-up demand, with cost of living causing shoppers to adjust their purchase behaviour. 60% of Australians are holding off buying things to get a good deal during the Black Friday sales.
Nature's Black Friday forecasts have matched what happened in market for three years running, including calling the 2024 slowdown before it arrived.
“Cost-of-living pressure hasn't stopped Australians spending. It has changed when they spend,”
said Paddy Cain, Partner at Nature.
“People have spent months waiting for the right moment, and Black Friday is it. That makes this the biggest Black Friday we've forecast, but also one of the hardest to win. Shoppers are arriving with more scepticism and better tools than ever, so a deal that can't stand up to a side-by-side comparison won't close the sale.”
Key Findings
12.55 million Australians plan to shop Black Friday in 2026, up from 11.36 million in 2025
60% are holding off buying things to get a good deal during the Black Friday sales
53% start planning their Black Friday purchases one to four weeks out
Black Friday is broadening beyond its younger core, with more older Australians planning to take part
Two in three (66%) say Black Friday makes it easy to overspend
One in two (52%) say Black Friday deals look similar to those available the rest of the year
31% plan to use AI chat tools before buying, rising to 38% of Gen Z and Millennials
Pressure has become the baseline
The findings follow Nature: Next's State of the Nation Spring 2026 update, which checked in with Australians in September, then again in October after the Reserve Bank's 30 September rate rise. Cost-of-living concern barely moved (76% to 77%), yet spending intentions for eating out, travel, gifts and clothing held. The share planning to spend more on gifts nearly doubled between May and October (10% to 19%). The Reserve Bank has since lifted rates again, on 3 November, to 4.85%, the highest level since 2008.
“Australians have stopped absorbing the pressure and started choosing,”
said Mr Cain.
“For retailers, the opportunity is to show up early, make value easy to see, and give people a reason to believe the deal is real.”
A hangover to follow
Nature also predicts a post Black Friday hangover. With demand saved up for one weekend, households expecting to spend more on fuel, groceries and bills, and the latest rate rise adding to the squeeze, Nature expects a significant pull back in spending in the weeks after Black Friday.
“All that saved-up demand has to go somewhere, and once it's spent, it's gone,”
said Mr Cain.
“Retailers counting on a strong December should plan for the pull back now.”
Request the full Black Friday 2026 report here: https://nature.com.au/naturenext/black-friday/.
