Research: The Next School Leavers Losing Faith in Further Study

New research finds only a third of year 10 to 12 students see university as essential to a job

The next generation of Australian students is the least convinced that further education is worth it, according to new research from strategic advisory firm Nature, with unemployment at its highest level in almost five years and employers cutting graduate intakes.

Only 36% of students in years 10 to 12 see university as essential to employment, compared with 57% of those already studying at university or TAFE.

The research, part of Nature's self-funded Nature: Next series, combined a national survey of future learners with follow-up interviews, and found the old contract between study and work is breaking.

Half of future learners see AI as a direct threat to their employability, two in three don't believe study gives them a job edge, and cost is the number one barrier, with 76% describing further education as a financial decision as significant as buying a house.

The interviews show how that doubt plays out.

“Is this bookkeeping really still valuable in the next two or three years?"

asked one working professional, 45, weighing up a course.

“This constitutes like 30% of my decision to study, because I'm looking everywhere at how AI is capturing most of the jobs."

“The ground is shifting under further education,”

Nature Director Adrian Compton-Cook said.

“School leavers are the least convinced it's worth it, but they're one part of a much broader mix of potential learners. Working professionals, career changers, and people looking to upskill around AI are all in the market, and they want different things from a provider."

“The evidence says providers need to diversify who they're talking to and what they're offering. Short courses, work-integrated learning, and flexible delivery aren't add-ons anymore. For a growing share of learners, they're the reason to choose you."

On AI, learners are more accepting than the public debate suggests. Around half think students should be using it and four in ten think staff should, and one prospective student called it “the highest-leverage skill you can have in this new world". But 62% say staff use of AI creates a double standard when student work is expected to be original.

“Learners will accept AI in the classroom,”

Nature Partner Justin Connally said.

“What they won't accept is one rule for them and another for staff. They want to know when and how AI can be used, they want staff to disclose their own use, and they want assessment that shows independent thinking."

“Career readiness is fast becoming table stakes, with every provider claiming industry connection and graduate employability. Handling AI with integrity, and teaching students to use it well, is one of the few ways left to stand out."

Learners haven't given up on study, but they want it to lead somewhere. Job-ready skills top the list of what further education should deliver, and learners described wanting to be “in the field rather than a classroom", with “job placements and internships, and real-world assignments" built into the course.

Short courses are where demand is moving fastest. Half of those intending to study want a short course or micro-credential, rising to 62% among working professionals, and Google searches for “university short courses" have roughly tripled since generative AI arrived. As one 38-year-old put it:

“A qualification, but if I don't get a job in that industry, at least I haven't wasted years doing so."

The research was conducted from 17 to 30 August 2026 with 1,020 Australians aged 16 and over intending to study in the next three years, supported by follow-up qualitative interviews.

The sample was nationally representative on age, gender, and location.